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Inside the Crystal Ball
By Helen Sosso
“So, what’s happening to real estate in the Sarasota area? Are prices stabilizing? Is there any mortgage money? And….oh, by the way, how do you think 2009 is going to be?” These are all common questions frequently asked of anyone in real estate. A few years ago the answers were easy. Today –the only way to know a true answer is if you could get inside that fictitious crystal ball where you could see the future.
That being said we do know what the statistics seem to show:
1. The number of properties put under agreement is steadily increasing.
2. The number of new listings are going down.
3. The median sales has dropped but the number of units sold has increased. Clearly this is a reflection of the sale of foreclosure and short sale properties. Remember too, this is a median price not an average sale price.
4. Great news! The absorption rate is drastically down—from 31 months a year ago to 18 months for single family homes and from 45 month to 28 months for condos.
The bottom line is that the statistics seem to imply that our real estate market has stabilized. Although we still have a way to go before we will see prices increase, Sarasota was named by the National Association of REALTORS® as one of three markets in the country on the rebound.
In conclusion, here are the answers to the questions above. You do not need a crystal ball to see that Sarasota real estate, although far off of 3 years ago, is clearly improving. Prices are still all over the board due to the number of foreclosures but the banks now realize they cannot hold on to these properties and those who price the property at the appraised value or under are seeing sales. Actually, in some cases of outstanding value, we have even seen multiple offers.
Yes, there is still mortgage money. But, the days are long gone when anyone can buy a home regardless of income, credit rating and down payment. Actually, what that means is we are back to what mortgage qualifications were for 25 years, and no harder.
2009 in real estate???? Certainly not 2004 or 2005 but my prediction is we will spend the coming year recovering from the past 3 with steady sales but spotty in what price ranges are selling. And though we will not see appreciation, we will see prices level out and stabilize. Definitely, not the time to think you can put a home on the market at a premium price. Value shoppers are about the only buyers we see today regardless if the price property is $100,000 or $10,000,000. Homes priced right, that are well decorated and maintained will sell.
Of course, all the above is dependent upon what happens in the banking industry and the whole economy. In our favor, is the fact (believe it or not), that the property values are now lower and as the baby boomers take forced retirement our area is now affordable to them. A few years ago we may have lost this buyer to the Carolinas where prices were lower.
Sarasota will continue to be the “Jewel of Florida’s Westcoast”. Our cultural amenities, beautiful beaches and friendly atmosphere, will always make people feel like this area is just a little piece of paradise and a great place to live!!!!
Bio
Since first entering the real estate profession as an agent in 1976, Helen has served in active roles in REALTOR® associations in Florida and Pennsylvania, acting on a local, state and national level.
Helen joined the Sarasota Association of REALTORS® in 2001. In 2003-2008 she served on the Board of Directors of both FAR and SAR as well as chairing the REALTOR®/Attorney Committee. Currently she is the President of SAR. She is also co-owner of Prudential Palms Realty in Sarasota and Prudential Preferred Realty in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Prior to her affiliation with SAR, Helen was active in the REALTOR® Association of Metropolitan Pittsburgh since 1978. There she served on various committees as well as serving as 1998 Board President. In 2002 she was named “REALTOR® of the Year.” She also served as a director for the Pennsylvania Association from 1993-2002.
On a national level, Helen has served as a NAR director and on several committees. In 2000, she was appointed to a special NAR strategic planning committee, and in 1999 she was named by National Relocation one of the most powerful women in Real Estate in Relocation.
www.prudentialpalmsrealty.com [2]
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